Ardesar

It seems every week brings another piece of news which forebodes an Israel-Iran conflict in the near future. First, Israel conducted a military exercise, then Iran set off several missiles, then Israel conducted air force exercises in Iraq. The writing is on the wall - Israel will attack and it will happen before the end of 2008. Such a move would have to be sanctioned by the United States and what better time than under the auspices of a cowboy administration? Israel’s well funded military which has struck with immunity in the past - remember Syria and Iraq - will have the advantage when it strikes Iran, but will the goal be achieved? Will Israel ever be able to say “mission accomplished’.

If the goal is to destroy the facilities where Uranium is being enriched - I’m not sure this will be successful. There are numerous enrichment facilities and rumored to be deep underground, so it is questionable. In addition the Uranium that has already been enriched is probably in a safe location. If the goal is to punish Iran and to bring about a regime change - I’m not sure this will be successful. The Israeli strikes will undoubtedly result in many civilian casualties. This could result in uniting the people with the Iranian Government, with the potential for a more radical nation. If the goal is to bring Iran to its knees - I’m not sure this will be successful. Given the adamant position Iran has taken in the light of all its adversity, it will retaliate with a vengeance. It has demonstrated that it has military capability. Also, didn’t Iran boast that it has thousands of volunteers ready to perform suicide bombings? Further, the ancillary arms of Iran - Hamas and Hezbollah - would become more empowered and emboldened. This conflict will continue ad infinitum.

It is generally recognized that the two weapons of last resort are nuclear and chemical. Iran probably has the capability to strike Israel with chemical weapons. It has not done so, and neither has it provided these to terrorist organizations. Along the same lines, even if Iran achieved nuclear capability, it is highly unlikely to use it or provide it to a terrorist organization. Like North Korea, nuclear capability serves as a deterrent against aggression. Iran probably has enough enriched uranium for a dirty bomb, which will be in a safe place from any Israeli strike! Let us hope that Iran is not provoked into using either of these options.

So before Israeli strikes, I hope it has carefully considered if the cure will be worse than the illness!

Ardesar is a nuclear engineer working at a utility in the New York area.